An In-Depth Statistical Approach to Deciphering the Mysterious and Elusive Predictive Power of Third-Down Conversion Percentage in American Football

• Activity Number: 539
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 7, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Ernest Fokoue and Benjamin Rollins*+
• Companies: Rochester Institute of Technology and Rochester Institute of Technology
• Keywords: Regression ; Classification ; Scoring Model ; National Football League ; Third Down Conversation ; Pattern Recognition

Abstract

Almost all American Football experts seem to agree, that of all the statistical measures used to track the performance of football teams, third down conversion percentage stands out as the one with the highest predictive power, especially at professional levels like the National Football League. However, existing literature on American football statistics provides very little in the way of a deeper look into the tactical reasons why this single down in football seems to discriminate so well between successful and unsuccessful teams. In this paper, we propose and explore in great details a variety of statistical models and techniques aimed at capturing the inner workings of third down conversion, and we suggest ideas on how coaches may potentially tweak their play calling to improve their third down conversion percentage and thereby achieve greater success. We also hint a simulation studies geared towards demonstrating how a team can tactically improve their third down conversion percentage by implementing the findings of our statistical analyses.