Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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88
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 4, 2013 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
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Abstract - #309255 |
Title:
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A Bayesian Two-Part Latent Class Model for Longitudinal Government Expenditure Data: Assessing the Impact of Vertical Political Alliances and Political Support
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Author(s):
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Felipe Nunes*+
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Companies:
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Keywords:
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Longitudinal ;
Government expenditures ;
MCMC ;
Brazil
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Abstract:
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Latin American presidents have great discretion over targeted spending decisions. Such expenses, however, are rarely modeled correctly. This paper implements a bayesian model to analyze an original longitudinal government expenditure data from Brazil in the timeframe of 1990 and 2012. This data presents three key features: first, the data is semicontinuous, assuming nonnegative values with a spike at zero for municipalities that did not receive any investments from the president, followed by a continuous, right-skewed distribution for those places which received something. Secondly, each municipality contributes an observation for each of the years, introducing within-subject correlation. Finally, because municipalities tend to share characteristics related to government investments, investment data fall into categorical classes. The model proposed is a mixture of a degenerate distribution at zero and a positive continuous distribution for the nonzero values. The model was fitted in R using an MCMC algorithm provided by Neelon et. al (2011). I run MCMC chains for 200,000 iterations each. The results seem to be more appropriate for the analysis required in the social sciences.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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