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Activity Number: 365
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 6, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Survey Research Methods Section
Abstract - #308973
Title: On the Effects of Degree-Day Base Temperatures on Estimates of Residential Energy End Uses
Author(s): Edgardo Cureg*+
Companies: US Energy Information Administration
Keywords: Residential Energy Consumption Survey ; energy end uses ; end-use modeling ; degree-day base
Abstract:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) periodically produces population estimates of residential energy consumption and expenditure for space heating, air conditioning, water heating, and other energy end uses using data from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). EIA uses fuel end-use models to decompose the sample households' total annual fuel consumption into a sum of components corresponding to the various end uses, appropriately weighting them up to produce population estimates of total and average energy end uses at various tabulations of interest. Within the fuel models the end-use components are represented as non-linear functions of relevant household variables available from RECS, or, in the case of the weather-dependent end uses of space heating and air conditioning, heating and cooling degree-days, respectively. Historically, degree-day data used in the end-use models are calculated on a constant base temperature of 65 degrees Fahrenheit. This paper analyzes the effects of replacing this constant value with a linear regression-modeled local base temperature on the ultimate population estimates of the entire vector of end-use consumption.


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