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Activity Number: 140
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 5, 2013 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #308968
Title: A Bayesian Hierarchical Repeated Measures Model to Estimate the ED50 of Known Teratogens in Sea Urchin Eggs
Author(s): Martiniano Flores*+ and Robert E Weiss and Michael D. Collins
Companies: UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and University of California, Los Angeles and UCLA Fielding School of Public Health
Keywords: Growth Curve ; Random Effects Model ; Teratology
Abstract:

Different doses of known human teratogens were administered to flasks containing fertilized sea urchin eggs (Strongylocentrotus purpuratus). Samples roughly of size 60 to 100 were taken, and the total number of abnormal phenotypes was recorded. A key goal is to estimate the ED50, the dosage required to cause abnormal phenotypes in 50% of the sample for each teratogen. Previously, ED50 was estimated by linear interpolation between the two doses whose percent bounded 50%. We use a Bayesian repeated measures random effects model for the proportion of abnormal phenotypes as a function of dosage and time at which the chemical was administered. Increasing dosage increases the proportion of abnormal phenotypes, but the rate of increase is dependent on the time at which the chemical is administered, providing insight into the biological mechanism of teratogenicity.


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