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Activity Number: 241
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 5, 2013 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #308850
Title: Design Life Level: Quantifying the Risk of Extreme Events in a Changing Climate
Author(s): Richard Katz*+ and Holger Rootzen
Companies: NCAR/IMAGe and Chalmers and Gothenburg University
Keywords: Extreme value theory ; High quantile ; Nonstationarity ; Return level ; Return period ; Risk of failure
Abstract:

Under a stationary climate, the risk of extreme events is usually quantified in terms of a return level with a specified return period (i.e., a high quantile) for the purpose of engineering design. Given anticipated future climate change, the question is how to quantify risk under nonstationarity. We advocate a concept, termed Design Life Level, based on a desired risk of failure over a specified design life time period. The Design Life Level corresponds to a high quantile of the distribution of the maximum of the variable over the design life time period. The application of this concept is demonstrated for both a hypothetical example and a real-world example of observed change in extremes. The delta method is used to attach a confidence interval to the estimated Design Life Level.


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