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Activity Number: 680
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 8, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #308592
Title: The Current Duration Approach to Analysing Time-to-Pregnancy: Direct Validation Using an Imbedded Prevalent Cohort Study
Author(s): Niels Keiding*+ and Ditte Norbo Sorensen and Remy Slama and Beatrice Ducot and Jean Bouyer
Companies: University of Copenhagen and University of Copenhagen and Inserm, Institut Albert Bonniot (U 823) and Inserm U1018 and Inserm U1018
Keywords: backward recurrence time ; censoring ; fecundity ; prevalent cohort study
Abstract:

Time to pregnancy (TTP), the duration from a couple starts trying to become pregnant until they succeed is one of the most direct estimates of natural fecundity in humans. The widely used retrospective (pregnancy-based) TTP-designs do not include couples remaining childless; prospective designs do not have this limitation but are difficult to carry out. We have developed a third possible design, starting from a cross-sectional sample of couples currently trying to become pregnant, using current duration (backward recurrence time) as basis for the estimation of time to pregnancy/end of pregnancy attempt. The Epidemiological Observatory of Fecundity in France had as a purpose to study environmental factors and fecundity. Here a nation-wide random sample of couples was screened for contraceptive use; two follow-up telephone surveys allowed prospective follow-up of the couples trying at first interview and of a sample of those not currently trying. Using left truncation of those currently trying, we thus have a prevalent cohort study, whose fecundability estimates can be empirically compared to those from the current duration approach based only on the first questionnaire data.


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