Analysis and Modeling of Major Power Outages in Northeast U.S.

• Activity Number: 195
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 5, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): David Trindade*+
• Companies: Bloom Energy
• Keywords: major power outages ; mission critical power ; Bloom Energy ; fuel cells

Abstract

We analyze the distribution of major power outages in northeast USA and parts of Canada. We consider the frequency, duration, and impact of the outages since 1965. We provide a Pareto analysis of the causes and estimate an average duration. The main causes are weather related events, such as hurricanes and ice, wind, and snow storms. Comparing several models, we estimate the probability of one or more major outages occurring in a year and over a five year period. The analysis shows that the frequency, duration, and number of people impacted by major outages has increased dramatically over the last 22 years compared to the previous 35 years spanning 1965 to 1990. The results of this analysis are important for companies providing supplies and services for residents affected by outages and especially for mission critical businesses,such as datacenters and hospitals. We describe Bloom Energy fuel cell servers that can reliably provide continuous power during major grid interruptions.