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Activity Number: 517
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 7, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Committee on Statistics and Disability
Abstract - #308305
Title: Novel Point Estimation from a Semiparametric Ratio Estimator (SPRE): Long-Term Health Outcomes from Short-Term Linear Data, with Application to Adults with Developmental Disability
Author(s): Deborah Weissman-Miller*+ and Catherine Link and Celina Parkman
Companies: Brenau University and The Shepherd Center and Cobb County School District
Keywords: disability ; point estimation ; health response function ; semiparametric ratio estimator ; SPRE

Point estimation is particularly important in predicting improvement in individuals who have developmental disabilities (DD). A new health response function based on a model of human response over time estimates long-term health outcomes from a change point in short-term linear regression in a pilot study for adults with DD. These estimations are given by parameters derived from short-term participant data in an (OLS) regression given in a new semiparametric ratio estimator model (SPRE). The response function is a ratio of two-parameter Weibull distributions times a prior outcome value stepping estimated outcomes forward in time. Shape and scale parameters are estimated at the change point. A feature of the SPRE model is that initial treatment response for each single-subject is reflected in long-term response to treatment. Results show that 7 participants had statistically significant results (p=0.05); a means analysis had statistically significant (p=0.00002) results showing an increase in skills from session 1 to session 12 (15.4%) and smaller increase for predictions (1.4%). Finally, the response function ratio provides a time frame for improvement for participants.

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