Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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119
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 5, 2013 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Business and Economic Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #308227 |
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Title:
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Seasonal Adjustment of CPS Labor Force Series During the Great Recession
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Author(s):
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Thomas Evans*+ and Richard Tiller
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Companies:
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Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Keywords:
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Time Series ;
Level Shifts ;
Ramps ;
Concurrent Adjustment ;
Revisions
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Abstract:
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The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly household survey that collects information on labor force characteristics for the United States. The seasonally adjusted monthly levels of employment, unemployment and unemployment rate are key indicators of the health of the economy. X-12-ARIMA is the method used for CPS seasonal adjustment. This method has a long history of development and refinement and is currently used by statistical agencies throughout the world. This paper reviews how this method was designed to handle changes in trend-cycle and seasonality during both economic expansions and contractions, what tools are available to adjust for major economic shocks, and how the method has performed in the latest recession.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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