Bayesian Cohort Component Population Forecasts

• Activity Number: 298
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Tuesday, August 6, 2013 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
• Author(s): Arkadiusz Wisniowski*+ and Peter W.F. Smith and James Raymer and Jakub Bijak
• Companies: University of Southampton and University of Southampton and Australian National University and University of Southampton
• Keywords: population projections ; Lee-Carter model ; uncertainty ; Bayesian modelling

Abstract

We explore the use of Bayesian methods for projecting the United Kingdom's age- and sex-specific population. We first argue that a Bayesian approach is a natural framework for incorporating various forms of uncertainty in probabilistic projections. Second, we demonstrate the consequences of choosing different Lee-Carter type models for fertility, mortality, immigration and emigration in terms of forecasted age patterns and their associated measures of uncertainty. Third, we incorporate these forecasts into a cohort component projection model and compare the results. We end by discussing the merits and flexibility of a Bayesian cohort component projection model and highlight some areas where this work could be extended.