Analysis of the NCAA Men's Final Four TV Audience

• Activity Number: 539
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 7, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): R. Paul Sabin*+ and Scott D. Grimshaw and Keith M Willes
• Companies: and Brigham Young University and BYU Broadcasting
• Keywords: Basketball ; Television ; Ratings ; NCAA ; Nielsen

Abstract

This is the first paper to investigate factors that affect the size of the TV audience for the NCAA Men's Final Four. The model is based on Nielsen data for 54 markets for ten years. One of the most interesting results is that college basketball teams have a measurable effect in their local markets, but even the biggest name programs don't have a national effect. However, the little known teams that succeed in the tournament, known as Cinderellas, have a national effect due to the media attention and success on the court. Broadcasters and advertisers are interested in maximizing the TV audience, and the model allows prediction to compare games between big name teams, David vs. Goliath games, and a Championship game between two Cinderella teams.