Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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178
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 5, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Biopharmaceutical Section
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| Abstract - #307881 |
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Title:
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Bayesian PPOS Design for Pilot Drug Development
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Author(s):
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Zhongwen Tang*+ and Jyotirmoy Dey
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Companies:
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Novartis Oncology and Novartis Oncology
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Keywords:
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Bayesian ;
clinical trial design ;
predictive probability of success
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Abstract:
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Traditional pilot trial design is based on type I error and power, which is not very appropriate due to the exploratory nature of pilot trials. We proposed a pilot trial design based on predictive probability of success (PPOS) in future confirmatory trial. Our method control controls false positive (negative) rate in a Bayesian setting. But the analysis of data is still based on a Frequentist method, which reflects the reality that most of the confirmatory trials are analyzed this way. Our approach can be applied to different end points. We have also developed a user-friendly software to support the computation of the proposed method.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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