Identifying Risk Factors for Heat-Related Mortality

• Activity Number: 592
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 7, 2013 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Matthew Heaton*+ and Stephan Sain and Tamara Greasby and Olga Wilhelmi and Andrew Monaghan and Mary Hayden and Christopher Uejio
• Companies: National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research and Florida State University
• Keywords: Heat Stress ; Environmental Health ; Urban Vulnerability

Abstract

Identifying risk factors for heat-related mortality is a key step in designing intervention strategies to combat negative consequences of elevated heat on public health. This study combines mortality counts, numerical model weather simulations, census and parcel data into a comprehensive study of risk factors for heat-related mortality in Houston, Texas. Specifically, a hierarchical model with spatially varying coefficients is used to account for differences in the relative risk of heat-related mortality between census block groups. Socio-economic and demographic variables from census and parcel data are selected via a forward selection algorithm where at each step the remaining variables are orthogonalized with respect to the chosen variables to account for collinearity. To explain the risk of heat-related mortality, composite heat indices (e.g. wet bulb globe temperature) are preferred to raw ambient temperature measurements (e.g. maximum temperature, relative humidity). Furthermore, elderly and low income populations have increased risk of heat-related mortality. Finally, elderly populations and those using public transportation are more vulnerable to heat increases.