A Compartment Model for Estimating Blood Donation Loss from Changes in the Inter-Donation Interval and Hemoglobin Requirements

• Activity Number: 79
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Sunday, August 4, 2013 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
• Author(s): Arianna Simonetti*+ and Anne Fernando and Richard Forshee
• Companies: U.S. Food and Drug Administration - CBER and Norfolk State University and U.S. Food and Drug Administration - CBER
• Keywords: Blood Donations ; Blood Donor Deferral ; Inter-Donation Interval ; Hemoglobin ; Compartment Model

Abstract

Frequent blood donors may be at risk of depletion of long term iron stores, and some have suggested extending the inter-donation interval (IDI) beyond 56 days and changing the minimum hemoglobin standards required for blood donation. We developed a compartment model to analyze the impact on blood donations of any changes in IDI or hemoglobin requirements. The model divided a pool of returning donors into sub-populations and modeled the rates at which individuals move among three compartments: 1) eligible donors; 2) donors deferred for low hemoglobin; and 3) donors deferred after successful donation. Differential equations were used to predict the state of the system at any given point in time. The model included stratification by blood type and race/ethnicity to explore the impact on sub-populations of blood donors. As an example, the model estimates that increasing the IDI to 84 days without changing hemoglobin requirements would reduce blood donations by 2.7%. Understanding the impact of changes in IDI or in hemoglobin standards on blood availability is relevant to make appropriate decisions to increase blood donor safety and guarantee an adequate blood supply.