Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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458
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 7, 2013 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Health Policy Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #307329 |
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Title:
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Statistical Methods in Micro-Simulation Modeling: Calibration and Predictive Accuracy of an MSM for Lung Cancer
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Author(s):
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Stavroula Chrysanthopoulou*+
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Companies:
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Brown University
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Keywords:
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Micro-simulation modeling ;
Bayesian calibration ;
Empirical calibration ;
comparative analysis
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Abstract:
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We discuss two key elements in micro-simulation model (MSM) building: calibration and assessment of the predictive accuracy, focusing on statistical and technical aspects. These issues are developed using a steamlined predictive MSM, describing the natural history of lung cancer. This model incorporates information ranging from the carcinogenesis mechanism (TSCE model) to the epidemiology (incidence and mortality) of lung cancer. The model predicts individual lung cancer trajectories based on age and smoking history. We present both Bayesian and empirical methods for model calibration, and compare the two methods in terms of practicality, quality (validation) and interpretation of their results.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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