Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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464
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 7, 2013 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Government Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #307230 |
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Title:
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Overview of Elicitation Methods and Software
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Author(s):
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Paul H. Garthwaite*+
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Companies:
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Open University
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Keywords:
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Probability assessment ;
expert opinion ;
subjective probability ;
generalized linear models ;
multinomial sampling
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Abstract:
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The purpose of an elicitation method is to help an expert quantify his or her opinions in a mathematically useful form. The expert performs meaningful assessment tasks and, in Bayesian applications, a probability (prior) distribution is formed from the elicited assessments. Different elicitation methods are required for different situations depending, in particular, on the sampling model and the model used to represent opinion. This talk gives an overview of a number of elicitation methods and software, focusing on those suitable for quantifying opinion about generalized linear models and multinomial distributions. Examples are given that illustrate their use. Also, varied factors that influence the effectiveness of an elicitation method are briefly discussed.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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