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Activity Number: 327
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 6, 2013 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #307196
Title: Disability-Adjusted Player Days: Epidemiology and Analytics in Baseball
Author(s): Elaine Allen*+ and Julia E Seaman
Companies: UCSF and UCSF
Keywords: analytics ; baseball ; disabled list ; epidemiology
Abstract:

Borrowed from Epidemiology we use Disability Adjusted Life Years(DALY)to assess and predict time on the disabled list(DL)in baseball. This shows promise as it can examine the age, experience, previous injuries, and other covariates for an individual player and adjust the 'average' lost time for any injury. The DALY = YLD + YLL where YLL is years lost due to mortality & YLD is years lived with disability (where here we only care about YLD). Using this framework we can compute weights for any injury using the DL MLB database and translate life-years lost to days lost on the DL. For example:A 38 year old male with a life expectancy of 77 years who sprains his ankle has his life expectancy reduced by his YLD = 0.03 years (or 11 days). However,if a 66 year old male with a life expectancy of 77 years sprains his ankle, his life expectancy is reduced by his YLD = 0.06 years (or 22 days). Lifespan is discounted to account for variability in individuals & other possible disabilities(3%=standard discount). Disability Adjusted Player Days uses DLD and are the days of playing time lost due to an injury adjusting for average time lost, position, age, & future playing years.


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