JSM 2013 Home
Online Program Home
My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 460
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 7, 2013 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: IMS
Abstract - #307127
Title: Hidden Heritability and Risk-Prediction Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies
Author(s): Nilanjan Chatterjee*+ and JuHyun Park and Joshua Sampson
Companies: National Cancer Institute and National Cancer Instutute and DCEG, National Cancer Institute
Keywords: case-control studies ; polygenic models ; risk discrimination ; variable selection ; penalized regression ; shriknage estimation

We report a new model to project the predictive performance of polygenic models based on the number and distribution of effect sizes for the underlying susceptibility alleles, the size of the training dataset and the balance of true and false positives among loci selected in the models. Using effect-size distributions derived from discoveries from the largest genome-wide association studies and estimates of hidden heritability, we assess the predictive ability of common Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNP) for ten complex traits. We project that while 45% of the total variance of adult height has been attributed to common SNPs, a model built based on one million people may only explain 33.4% of variance of the trait in an independent sample. Models built based on current GWAS data sets can identify 3.0%, 1.1%, and 7.0%, of the populations who are at two-fold or higher than average risk for Type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and prostate cancer, respectively. By tripling the sample size in the future, the corresponding percentages could be elevated to 18.8%, 6.1%, and 12.2%, respectively.

Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2013 program

2013 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

ASA Meetings Department  •  732 North Washington Street, Alexandria, VA 22314  •  (703) 684-1221  •  meetings@amstat.org
Copyright © American Statistical Association.