Use of Bayesian Formula in Evaluating People

• Activity Number: 40
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Sunday, July 29, 2012 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
• Author(s): Shriniwas Katti*+
• Companies: University of Missouri
• Keywords: bayes prior uniform math simplifying

Abstract

I used it assigning grads to students in my classes and those being taught by my Graduate Assistant at the Statistics Department, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO. When students would come to their first class, I would give each one a probability of their being an A, B, C, D and F Grader. I would make a serious attempt at evaluating them. I kept out of Uniform distribution and other 'Math Simplifying' distributions. If two competent people disagree, then when you have four revisions of the probabilities through Bayes formula, the differences melt away. That is what the four evaluations - sample size of 'n' - are about. Before giving a test, I would ask myself and my associates, "If the student is an A-grader, what are the probabilities of the student making an actual grade of A, B, C, D, F on this test?" As you expect, a vast majority of the students converge to one grade. There ar