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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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654
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 2, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Risk Analysis
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| Abstract - #306826 |
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Title:
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The Generalized Pareto Distribution and Threshold Analysis of Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States Gulf Coast
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Author(s):
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Kumer Pial Das*+ and Gui Li Liu
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Companies:
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Lamar University and Lamar University
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Address:
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7930 Buttercup Lane, Beaumont, TX, , USA
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Keywords:
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Extreme Value Theory ;
Generalized Pareto Distribution ;
Mean Excess Plot ;
Excess over Threshhold ;
Normalized hurricane data
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Abstract:
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This study concerns the probability distribution of the most damaging hurricanes to strike the United States. Economic damage is normalized to adjust for temporal shifts in societal vulnerability. Consistent with the extreme value theory, a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution is fitted to the excess in damage over a high threshold. The focus of the statistical analysis is primarily on diagnostics to determine an appropriate threshold. Conclusive evidence is provided that such data have a heavy tail (i.e., a GP distribution with a positive shape parameter)
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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