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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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195
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 30, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Sports
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| Abstract - #306757 |
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Title:
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Predicting Goal Scoring in Hockey
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Author(s):
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Brian Macdonald*+ and Rodney Sturdivant and Craig Lennon
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Companies:
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U.S. Military Academy and U.S. Military Academy and U.S. Military Academy
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Address:
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264 Main St, Highland Falls, NY, 10928, United States
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Keywords:
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logistic regression ;
random effects ;
hockey ;
sports
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Abstract:
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In this talk we discuss predicting goal scoring in hockey both at the level of a single shot and also at the level of an entire season. For single shots, we estimate the probability that a shot will be a goal using detailed information about the shot like distance, angle, and whether or not the shot was a rebound. Each shot can be weighted based on the probability that it will be a goal. These "weighted shots" and other more traditional statistics can then be used to predict team goals over an entire season or half a season. For example, we use various statistics from one half of a season to predict goal scoring rates in the other half of a season. The resulting predictions are more accurate than if we had used simply goals or shots alone as the predictor variable.
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