The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.
Online Program Home
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
|
618
|
Type:
|
Contributed
|
Date/Time:
|
Thursday, August 2, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
|
Sponsor:
|
ENAR
|
Abstract - #306738 |
Title:
|
The Summary Predictive Curve: A Novel Method for Evaluating Prediction Performance of Biomarkers and Tests
|
Author(s):
|
Zheng Zhang*+
|
Companies:
|
Brown University
|
Address:
|
121 South Main Street, Providence, RI, 02912, United States
|
Keywords:
|
Prediction ;
Biomarkers ;
PPV ;
NPV ;
AUC ;
ROC curve
|
Abstract:
|
Almost all the current methods for evaluating prediction performance of biomarkers are extensions of marker's sensitivity, specificity or AUC. But those measures are more suitable for evaluating marker's diagnostic accuracy than predictive accuracy. In that regard, PPV and NPV are better measures, but both are dependent on the disease prevalence. Since a good marker needs to have both high PPV and NPV, a summary measure that incorporates both values are desirable. We define a measure, summary predictive value(SPV), that is less sensitive to prevalence and combines both PPV and NPV to a single value. In addition, we define summary predictive curve by plotting SPV as a function of the positive test threshold. We show the summary predictive curve is capable to distinguish markers with different ability to predict clinical outcomes.
|
The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
Back to the full JSM 2012 program
|
2012 JSM Online Program Home
For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.
If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.