Ensemble-Based Methods to Explore and Constrain Parametric Uncertainty in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM)

• Activity Number: 456
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Gardar Johannesson*+ and Donald D. Lucas and Richard I. Klein
• Companies: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
• Keywords: Uncertainty quantification ; sensitivity analysis ; statistical calibration

Abstract

Predictions from computer models can be off due to numerous factors, including uncertainty in input parameters and data. Projections from global climate models are good examples. Here we report on research effort to advance the science of uncertainty quantification (UQ) of complex and computationally expensive simulation codes and the application of UQ to climate models. We present results from an ensemble-based UQ study of components of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), including results of sensitivity analysis and statistical calibration of uncertain input parameters.