JSM 2012 Home

JSM 2012 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

Online Program Home

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 524
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: IMS
Abstract - #306672
Title: The Effect of Uncertainty About the Alternative Source Population on the Assessment of the Value of Forensic Evidence
Author(s): Christopher Saunders*+
Companies: George Mason University
Address: 14402 Filly Ct, Centreville, VA, 20120, United States
Keywords: Forensics ; Bayes Factors

In the forensic interpretation of scientific evidence is to make an inference about the source of a trace of unknown origin. This inference usually concerns two propositions: the first (usually referred to as the prosecution hypothesis) states that a given specific source is the actual source of the trace of unknown origin, and the second (usually referred to as the defense hypothesis) states that the actual source of the trace of unknown origin is randomly selected from a relevant alternative source population. The evidence a forensic scientist is given for deciding between these two propositions is: (a) the trace of unknown origin; (b) a sample from the specific source specified by the prosecution hypothesis; and (c) a collection of samples from the alternative source population. One approach is to assume that the alternative source population is completely known and rely on a Bayes Factor for deciding between the competing hypotheses. In this presentation, we will relax this assumption and explore some of the resulting issues arising from the estimation of the alternative source population. We will illustrate the resulting effects with a collection of glass fragment data.

The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2012 program

2012 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.