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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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292
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, July 31, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Risk Analysis
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| Abstract - #306427 |
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Title:
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On the Aggregation of Event Probabilities
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Author(s):
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Stephen Hora*+
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Companies:
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University of Southern California
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Address:
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3710 McClintock Ave, Los Angeles, CA, 90089-2902, United States
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Keywords:
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Expert judgment ;
Calibration ;
Bayes' theorem
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Abstract:
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Multiple forecasts given as probabilities of events are aggregated using two assumptions: calibration and conditional independence. The forecasts are treated as data and the aggregation is based on Bayes' theorem. A measure of discrimination is given and the behavior of the aggregated posterior probability is examined as the number of forecasters grows without bound. The work is motivated by recent research efforts employing large numbers on individual forecasts.
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The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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