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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 292
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #306427
Title: On the Aggregation of Event Probabilities
Author(s): Stephen Hora*+
Companies: University of Southern California
Address: 3710 McClintock Ave, Los Angeles, CA, 90089-2902, United States
Keywords: Expert judgment ; Calibration ; Bayes' theorem

Multiple forecasts given as probabilities of events are aggregated using two assumptions: calibration and conditional independence. The forecasts are treated as data and the aggregation is based on Bayes' theorem. A measure of discrimination is given and the behavior of the aggregated posterior probability is examined as the number of forecasters grows without bound. The work is motivated by recent research efforts employing large numbers on individual forecasts.

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