JSM 2012 Home

JSM 2012 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

Online Program Home

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 566
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Nonparametric Statistics
Abstract - #306362
Title: Assessing the Dependency Between Magnitudes of Earthquakes and Magnitudes of Their Aftershocks
Author(s): Kevin Nichols*+
Companies: California State University Fullerton
Address: 14901 Newport Ave, Tustin, CA, 92780, United States
Keywords: ETAS ; MISD ; Aftershock ; Expectation Maximization ; Magnitude ; Dependency

Current assumptions on the level of dependency between the magnitudes of earthquakes and the magnitudes of their aftershocks vary significantly, ranging from assumed independence for models like Epidemic type Aftershock-Sequence (ETAS) to assumed positive correlation, at least for the events leading up to the largest earthquakes, for models like Accelerated Moment Release (AMR). (Marsan 2008) developed a method for model independent stochastic declustering (MISD) of a multi-dimensional Hawkes self-exciting process, or as is the case here, earthquake activity. Repeated application of MISD to a global earthquake catalog allows for estimates with confidence bounds for the average magnitude of an aftershock conditioned upon the magnitude(s) of the earthquake(s) that caused the aftershock. Results based on a global CMT earthquake catalog indicate that the magnitudes of aftershocks are dependent on the magnitudes of the earthquakes that cause them and indeed larger than average earthquakes are more likely to trigger larger than average aftershocks.

The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2012 program

2012 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.