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Activity Number: 498
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
Abstract - #306317
Title: Evaluation of an Odds Ratio Using a Longitudinal Case-Control Study Design
Author(s): Ying Lu*+ and Joong-Ho Won
Companies: VA Palo Alto Healthcare System/Stanford University and VAPAHCS
Address: 701-B North Shoreline Blvd., Room 203, Mountain View, CA, , USA
Keywords: Diagnostic Test ; Odds Ratio ; Measurement Errors ; Case-Control Studies ; Longitudinal Data Analysis ; Design
Abstract:

A retrospective case-control study can derive an unbiased estimate of an odds ratio quickly and inexpensively. However, it is not an option for new radiological tests because pre-disease tests are rarely available. In this paper, we propose a new longitudinal age-matched case-control design for a non-lethal disease with known occurrence time for cases. For each pair at each time t after the disease for the case, we observe [X(t), Z(t), Y] where Y is the binary disease status, X(t) is the test value, and Z(t) is the binary indicator of being sampled. A logistic regression model is proposed between the missing X(0) and Y. A likelihood function and MLE can be derived. We performed simulation studies to show that such a design is reasonable to estimate and test the odds ratio. The trade-off between the losses of the statistical efficiency versus the cost of a prospective study suggest this design be a good choice for the low cost diagnostic tests.


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