Analyzing the Dynamics of the U.S. Blood Supply Using a Computer Simulation Model

• Activity Number: 506
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
• Author(s): Arianna Simonetti*+ and Mark Walderhaug
• Companies: FDA/CBER and FDA/CBER
• Keywords: Blood Supply ; Stock and Flow Model ; ABO groups ; Rh type

Abstract

The U.S. blood system is complex, and it is important to understand how resilient the blood supply would be in case of a national emergency. We have developed a computer simulation model of the U.S. blood supply to evaluate the impact on supply of inter-center transfers of blood in case of a Pandemic. The model includes a simplified inter-regional blood transfer system and provides quantitative regional estimates with uncertainty of blood availability disaggregated by ABO/Rh blood types. The inter-relationship between regions is accomplished by allowing the establishment of five regional blood centers with inter-regional demand for blood generated from one region and surplus supply shared by other regions. This system accommodates the needs of simulated regions in which additional blood is needed communicating to other regions with surplus supply to adjust their needs. Modeling inter-regional blood transfers is relevant for capturing specific dynamics of the U.S. blood supply system. Simulation for Pandemic show that within the most transferred blood types there is a 28% reduction (AB+) and a 14%(A+) and 83%(O+) increase of inter-regional transfers than in a non-emergency situation