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Activity Number: 14
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 29, 2012 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section for Statistical Programmers and Analysts
Abstract - #306112
Title: Utilization Models in Health Care
Author(s): Iordan Slavov*+
Address: 555 Kappock St, #6T, Bronx, NY, 10463, United States
Keywords: Service Utilization ; Dose-response ; Generalized Propensity Score ; Generalized Linear Models ; Quantile Regression

Chronic budget issues in federally funded health care programs such as Medicare make the question of what is the optimal amount of home care someone needs especially important. We focus on rehabilitation/physical therapy (RT) services and using data from a large home care agency are trying to answer the question demonstrating along the way the use of several important modeling techniques. First the length of stay (LOS) is modeled by a quasi-likelihood generalized linear model (with a log link and constant variance) which is increasingly popular in the case of skewed outcomes. Then the frequency of the visits is modeled using generalized propensity score and an additive model. The predicted number of visits for a new patient is the (rounded) product of the estimated LOS and frequency of visits. Modeling the visits for patients falling in a certain LOS bracket, e.g. between 1 and 3 weeks, with the use of quantile regression is also attempted.

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