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Activity Number: 519
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #306105
Title: Model Sensitivity in Climate Reconstruction Using Tree-Ring Data
Author(s): Matthew Schofield*+
Companies: University of Kentucky
Address: 311 Multidisplinary Science Building, Lexington, KY, 40536-0082, United States
Keywords: Climate Reconstruction ; Bayesian ; Hierarchical Modeling ; Tree Ring Data

We investigate the use of tree-ring growth data for reconstructing historical climate. Current approaches to the problem use a two step procedure that standardizes (pre-processes) the data before reconstructing the climate. We propose a model-based approach that describes both the standardization and reconstruction processes in one step. Such a modeling approach can incorporate assumptions that give an analogue of the current approach, as well as explore extensions/changes to the assumptions commonly used. Using data from Northern Sweden we explore how model assumptions affect the resulting predictions of historical climate. We investigate the use of various model checking approaches to assess the impact of the model changes and discuss how the model we use and the results we find relate to other models used in multi-proxy reconstruction studies.

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