JSM 2012 Home

JSM 2012 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

Online Program Home

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 526
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #305963
Title: Predicting Cholera Cases from Environmental Variables Using Sequential Monte Carlo Methods
Author(s): Amanda Allen*+ and Vladimir N Minin and Ira Longini and Jon Wakefield and Elizabeth Halloran
Companies: University of Washington and University of Washington and Emerging Pathogens Institute and University of Washington and University of Washington
Address: Dept. of Statistics, Box 354322, Seattle, WA, 98195, United States
Keywords: cholera ; Sequential Imputation ; Markov chain Monte Carlo
Abstract:

Despite seasonal cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh, little is known about the relationship between environmental conditions and cholera cases. We seek to develop a predictive model for cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh based on lagged environmental predictors. To do this, we must estimate the environmental parameters in the context of a transmission model. We develop a method to simultaneously estimate the transmission parameters and the environmental parameters in an SIRS model. The entire system is treated as a partially observed Markov process model, where the unobserved Markov states are the number of people who are susceptible, infected, and recovered at each time point, and the observed states are the number of cholera cases reported. We use Bayesian particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to sequentially estimate the missing state vectors. In this way, we can estimate the posterior distribution of the environmental and transmission parameters given the observed data. We test this method using both simulated data and data from a particular pond in Bakerganj.


The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2012 program




2012 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.