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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 139
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #305923
Title: Agent-Based Models for HIV Prevention Programs
Author(s): David Scott Boren*+ and Ron Brookmeyer
Companies: University of California at Los Angeles and University of California at Los Angeles
Address: 23105 Shawnee Ct., Santa Clarita, CA, 91390, United States
Keywords: HIV ; Networks ; MSM ; ART ; PREP
Abstract:

In recent years, there have been various developments in the area of HIV prevention methodologies, especially through the use of ART (anti-retroviral therapy). These advancements have raised critical challenges in determining the optimal combinations of therapeutic distribution. We employ an agent based social network model, based on sexual contact parameters relevant to MSMs in South Africa, to evaluate the varying impact of these combinations. Several statistical issues have been encountered over the course of this model's implementation, including both the challenges of calibrating model output parameters to known, observed data as well as the inherent stochasticity arising from the dependent structure of the network. Preliminary findings suggest that PREP (pre-exposure prophylaxis utilizing ART) targeting to the highest risk individuals in South Africa could significantly lower long-term HIV incidence.


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