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Activity Number: 408
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2012 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #305793
Title: Stage-Wise Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Clinical Trials
Author(s): Yi Cheng*+
Companies: Indiana University South Bend
Address: Dept of Mathematical Sciences, South Bend, IN, 46530, United States
Keywords: Bayesian ; adaptive design ; Clinical Trials ; decision theoretical approaches ; interim analysis ; Stage-Wise

A Bayesian adaptive design is proposed for a comparative two-armed clinical trial using decision theoretical approaches. A loss function is specified to consider the cost for each patient, as wellas the costs of making incorrect decisions. At each interim analysis, the decision whether to terminate the trial is based on the expected loss under the posterior distributions. The number of interim analyses is not pre-fixed but decided adaptively by the observed data. The connection between the design parameter and the classical error rates is studied. Numerical studies are carried out to compare the proposed design with existing ones. The design is general enough to accommodate both continuous and discrete types of data.

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