Modeling of Lifetime Systolic and Diastolic Blood Pressure with Concurrent BMI, Height, and

• Activity Number: 475
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
• Author(s): Shumei Sun*+ and Robert Carrico and Bernard Rosner
• Companies: Virginia Commonwealth University and Virginia Commonwealth University and Harvard Medical School
• Keywords: systolic blood pressure ; longitudinal analysis ; ARMA models

Abstract

Long-term serial systolic and diastolic blood pressure data from 965 men and 1114 women in the Fels Longitudinal Study were analyzed to link blood pressure in adulthood to blood pressure measured decades earlier in the same individuals as children. Longitudinal models with compound symmetry (CS), first order autoregressive [AR (1)], and ARMA (1,1) correlation structures were applied to serial blood pressure data with concurrent time-varying covariates BMI, height, and blood pressure medication. ARMA(1,1) was chosen according to log-likelihood and AIC. The results showed that SBP increases with age in a quadratic trend. We also showed that taller individuals have higher SBP in general, and that a significant quadratic trend exists for the relationship between BMI and SBP. We also found that once an individual is placed on blood pressure medicine, the SBP decreases significantly. Supported by Grants R01HL40619, U01HL101064-02, R01HD060913-03, R01HD038356, DK 071485, HL 072838 and HD 12252 from the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland.