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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 506
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #305581
Title: An Analysis of Historical Aviation Accident Data
Author(s): Nastaran Coleman*+
Companies: Federal Aviation Administration
Address: 800 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC, 20591, United States
Keywords: Analysis ; Historical ; Aviation ; Accident ; Data ; Federal

The Federal Aviation Administration uses historical accident statistics to predict future accident rates for various scenarios, to evaluate the effects of safety programs and to identify safety risks so that returns on investments are maximized. Variables from the National Transportation Safety Board database are used to categorize aviation accidents. Total and fatal accident counts and rates are graphed. Various accident categories are identified and their shares of total and fatal accidents are presented. Using statistical techniques and historical trends, the seriousness of accidents in different categories is examined to determine the effectiveness of existing safety initiatives. Areas that need the most safety improvement are identified. The categories used include type of operations, aircraft class, phase of flight, daytime or nighttime, runway incursions and weather conditions.

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