On the Performance of Consumer Confidence Measurement

• Activity Number: 521
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Survey Research Methods
• Author(s): Turknur Brand*+
• Keywords: Survey methodology ; consumer survey

Abstract

Consumer confidence is a psychological concept, described as national economic conditions, is difficult to measure; it is an expression of the opinions and attitudes of consumers about the current and future strength of the economy. How to collect this information is important because it is an economic indicator for forecasting household consumption expenditure, consumer behavior in general and the country's economic situation. Moreover, consumer confidence indices which are formed by using the consumer survey data can provide a fairly accurate prediction of consumers' economic behavior (Carroll, Fuhrer, Wilcox (1994), Kwan, Cotsomitis (2004)). In this article, household micro-level data from the consumer survey, carried out with cooperation of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) and Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), is used. The performance of the survey is discussed from a design based perspective by using some statistical analysis and survey theory. The results of those steps taken to enhance efficiency are evaluated. Following this and some other research, there has been some updates on consumer survey design and began a pilot period in 2012.