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Abstract Details
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Activity Number:
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329
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, July 31, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #305463 |
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Title:
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Future Rainfall Projections Using Downscaled Regional Climate Models
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Author(s):
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Robert Erhardt*+
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Companies:
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Wake Forest University
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Address:
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PO Box 227, Saxapahaw, NC, 27340-0227, United States
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Keywords:
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downscaling ;
extremes ;
global climate models ;
regional climate models ;
biased resampling
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Abstract:
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A central challenge when simultaneously working with climate model output and environmental data is that the data are often point-referenced, but climate model output usually refers to areal units. Combining point-referenced information at a scale smaller than the grid cells with areal climate model output is a problem known as downscaling. When one seeks to incorporate climate model output into environmental predictions at specific locations, this downscaling issue is unavoidable.
In this paper we present a computationally intensive approach for studying the impact of climate change scenarios on distributions of precipitation. The method is based on a re-sampling of past rainfall events with re-sampling probabilities determined from regional and global climate models. We demonstrate the approach using precipitation data in North Carolina, with particular attention to changes in rainfall extremes over time.
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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