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Abstract Details
Activity Number:
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195
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 30, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Sports
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Abstract - #305255 |
Title:
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AccuScore: Don't Bet on It
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Author(s):
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Jay Schaffer*+
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Companies:
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University of Northern Colorado
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Address:
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Dept. of Applied Stat & Research Methods, Greeley, CO, 80639, United States
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Keywords:
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Sports ;
Linear Regression ;
Logistic Regression
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Abstract:
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The Wall Street Journal publishes daily statistical predictions provided to it by AccuScore.com. AccuScore is an online website that charge individuals for their predictions. AccuScore claims to simulate game outcomes 10,000 times for each contest. Sometimes final scores are published while other times probabilities are given for each team's likelihood of winning. Predictions are made for a wide variety of sports, including major league baseball, national league hockey, national league football, national league basketball, along with NCAA college football and basketball. A full season of major league baseball and NFL football was studied and the accuracy of the AccuScore predictions was examined. Linear regression and logistic regression models were fit to the data. Summary statistics were calculated. After analyzing the results, it was determined that there are simply too many variables in sports to accurately predict outcomes. The moral to the story is "save your money."
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Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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