JSM 2012 Home

JSM 2012 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

Online Program Home

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 195
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #305255
Title: AccuScore: Don't Bet on It
Author(s): Jay Schaffer*+
Companies: University of Northern Colorado
Address: Dept. of Applied Stat & Research Methods, Greeley, CO, 80639, United States
Keywords: Sports ; Linear Regression ; Logistic Regression
Abstract:

The Wall Street Journal publishes daily statistical predictions provided to it by AccuScore.com. AccuScore is an online website that charge individuals for their predictions. AccuScore claims to simulate game outcomes 10,000 times for each contest. Sometimes final scores are published while other times probabilities are given for each team's likelihood of winning. Predictions are made for a wide variety of sports, including major league baseball, national league hockey, national league football, national league basketball, along with NCAA college football and basketball. A full season of major league baseball and NFL football was studied and the accuracy of the AccuScore predictions was examined. Linear regression and logistic regression models were fit to the data. Summary statistics were calculated. After analyzing the results, it was determined that there are simply too many variables in sports to accurately predict outcomes. The moral to the story is "save your money."


The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2012 program




2012 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.