The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.
Online Program Home
Abstract Details
Activity Number:
|
450
|
Type:
|
Topic Contributed
|
Date/Time:
|
Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
|
Sponsor:
|
Business and Economic Statistics Section
|
Abstract - #305210 |
Title:
|
Complementary Properties of an F-Test and an Empirical Spectral Test for Identifying Seasonality in Unadjusted or Seasonally Adjusted Series
|
Author(s):
|
David Findley*+
|
Companies:
|
U.S. Census Bureau
|
Address:
|
3915 Fulton St NW, Washington, DC, 20007, United States
|
Keywords:
|
Seasonal adjustment ;
Residual seasonality ;
Seasonality diagnostics ;
Stationary seasonality ;
X-13ARIMA-SEATS
|
Abstract:
|
We compare the AR spectrum test of X-12-ARIMA and the stable seasonal F-test of Lytras, Feldpausch and Bell (2007), who demonstrated that the latter is well-sized and the former substantially oversized when testing at the .05 level. In contrast, we present results from simulations of stationary seasonal ARMA models with a seasonal AR coefficient of THETA12=0.4 or less and show the F-test incorrectly identifies stable seasonality in the majority of these series, whereas the spectrum test rarely makes this error. We also explain why the spectrum test, limited by default to the last 96 months of data, much more readily identifies residual seasonality in poorly adjusted time series with moving seasonality than the F-test and show that, at the expense of a second run of the software on the last 108 months of the seasonally adjusted series considered, the F-test becomes competitive.
|
The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
Back to the full JSM 2012 program
|
2012 JSM Online Program Home
For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.
If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.