Space-Time Wind Speed Forecasting for Improved Power System Dispatch

• Activity Number: 109
• Type: Topic Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Marc Genton*+ and Xinxin Zhu and Yingzhong Gu and Le Xie
• Companies: Texas A&M University and Texas A&M University and Texas A&M University and Texas A&M University
• Keywords: Power system economic dispatch ; Power system operation ; Wind data ; Wind speed forecasting ; Power system operation ; Space-time statistical model

Abstract

To support large scale integration of wind power, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient scheduling of wind power in electric energy systems. We incorporate space-time wind forecasts into power system economic dispatch models. We propose a new space-time wind forecasting model, which generalizes and improves upon a regime-switching space-time model by allowing the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons. Results from the new wind forecasting model are implemented into a power system economic dispatch model, which takes into account both spatial and temporal wind speed correlations. This, in turn, leads to an overall more cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation portfolio. The potential economic benefits arise in the system-wide generation and ancillary service cost savings. This is illustrated in a test system in the northwest of the U.S. Compared with persistent and AR models, our method could lead to annual integration cost savings on the scale of tens of millions of dollars in regions with high wind penetration, such as Texas and the Northwest.