JSM 2012 Home

JSM 2012 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

Online Program Home

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 450
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
Abstract - #304604
Title: Differences in Performance Between Concurrent and Projected Seasonal Factors for Weekly UI Data
Author(s): Thomas Evans*+
Companies: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Address: 4561 Sawgrass Ct, Alexandria, VA, 22312-3152, United States
Keywords: Time Series ; Revisions

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) seasonally adjusts weekly Unemployment Insurance (UI) data for the Employment and Training Administration of the Department of Labor. Although concurrent seasonal adjustment is quite common for monthly and quarterly data, projected factors continue to be the norm for weekly data. Many studies, such as Pierce and McKenzie (1987), suggest that concurrent adjustment will lead to greater accuracy and smaller revisions. However, the assumption that weekly data are likely to be more subject to calendar effects, and also that the program would need to be run 52 or 53 times a year instead of 12 or 4, has led to the continued use of projected factors. Comparisons are made between concurrent estimates with ones projected out 13, 26, or 52 weeks utilizing week-to-week changes and revisions.

The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2012 program

2012 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.