Investigating the Spring-to-Summer Transition in Georgia

• Activity Number: 519
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Raymond Mooring*+ and Lynne Seymour
• Companies: Analysis Made Easy and The University of Georgia
• Keywords: climate variability ; temperature trends ; linear regressions ; decision trees ; Georgia ; observational study

Abstract

Some climate results are intuitive, even if a formal experiment or analysis has not been conducted to validate the findings. To the Georgian resident, the winters seem to be warmer than they were before, the spring season seems to be shrinking, and summer-like conditions appear much earlier in the calendar than they have appeared in recent memory. The purpose of this study is to provide scientific and statistical evidence of these informal hypotheses. Specifically, the official daily temperature and precipitation records for the state of Georgia are analyzed to determine if the transition from spring to summer is growing shorter. Cluster analysis, and decision-tree procedures were used to develop definitions for and characterize the seasonal transitions. An empirical analysis of heat wave characteristics and several regression models were also created to inv