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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 318
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, July 31, 2012 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #304361
Title: A Systematic Review of Models to Predict Recruitment to Multicenter Clinical Trials
Author(s): Andrew Cook*+
Companies: University of Southampton
Address: Alpha House, Southampton, SO16 7NS, United Kingdom
Keywords: recruitment ; model ; RCT ; systematic review
Abstract:

Less than one third of publicly funded trials managed to recruit according to their original plan often resulting in request for additional funding and/or time extensions. As part of the United Kingdom's major public trial funder we sought to identify models which might be useful when estimating likely time requirements for recruiting trial participants. We undertook a systematic review of English language articles using MEDLINE and EMBASE. Only studies discussing prediction of recruitment to trials using a modelling approach were included. Out of 326 identified abstracts, only 8 met all the inclusion criteria. Of these 8 studies examined, there are five major classes of model discussed: the unconditional model, the conditional model, the Poisson model, Bayesian models and Monte Carlo simulation of Markov models. None of these meet all the pre-identified needs of the investigators.


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