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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 118
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Biopharmaceutical Section
Abstract - #304349
Title: Random Effect Multi-Stage Transitional Models
Author(s): Changhong Song*+
Companies: FDA/CDRH
Address: 5 Riker Hill Road, Livingston, NJ, 07039, United States
Keywords: Transition ; Multi-State
Abstract:

Longitudinal studies of aging often gather repeated observations of cognitive status to describe the development of dementia and to assess the influence of risk factors. Clinical progression to dementia is often conceptualized by a multi-stage model of several transitions that synthesizes time-varying effects. In this study, we assess the influence of risk factors on the transitions among three cognitive status: cognitive stability (normal cognition for age), memory impairment, and clinical dementia. We have developed a shared random effects model that not only links the propensity of transitions and to the probability of informative missingness due to death, but also incorporates heterogeneous transition between subjects. We evaluate four approaches using generalized logit and four using proportional odds models to the first-order Markov transition probabilities as a function of covariates.


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