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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 29
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, July 29, 2012 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Health Policy Statistics Section
Abstract - #304236
Title: New Stochastic Models of Human Eye Cancer Involving Both Hereditary and Non-Hereditary Cancers
Author(s): Hong Zhou*+ and Wai-Yuan Tan
Companies: Arkansas State University and University of Memphis
Address: 458 Fountain Crest Cv, Memphis, TN, 38120-1868, United States
Keywords: Stochastic equation ; Generalized mixture model ; Retinoblastoma ; Uveal melanoma ; eye cancer
Abstract:

Human eye cancers consist of pediatric eye cancer (retinoblastoma) and adult eye cancer (uveal melanoma). Based on recent biological studies, in this paper we have developed new stochastic models for retinoblastoma and for uveal melanoma respectively. We have further incorporated genetic segregation of cancer genes into these models to derive generalized mixture models for human eye cancers. Based on these models we have developed a generalized Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters and to predict cancer incidence via Gibbs sampling procedures. We have applied these models to fit and analyze the SEER data of human eye cancers from NCI/NIH. Our results indicate that the models not only provide a logical avenue to incorporate biological information but also fits the data much better than other models. These models would not only provide more insights into human eye cancers but also would provide useful guidance for its prevention and control and for prediction of future cancer cases.


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