Stochastic Counterfactuals, Sufficient Causes, and Quantum Mechanics

• Activity Number: 443
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: International Chinese Statistical Association
• Author(s): James Robins*+ and Tyler VanderWeele
• Companies: Harvard University and Harvard School of Public Health
• Keywords: interaction ; stochastic ; quantum mechanics

Abstract

Informally, two causes interact if both must be present to bring about an outcome of interest. A mathematical theory of sufficient cause interactions has been developed to formalize this idea. This theory posits the existence of deterministic counterfactuals. In this talk, we consider how to extend the theory to allow for stochastic counterfactuals. Philosophically, this extension seems important because quantum mechanics, our most successful theory of nature, is believed to be inherently stochastic. But more is true. We show that our mathematical theory of sufficient cause interactions, when combined with the results of experiments, can in a certain sense, actually be used, to "prove" that quantum mechanics must be inherently stochastic. Specifically, we show that the theory leads to a concise proof of Bell's inequality.