Seeing a Complex Natural Environment Through a Statistical Glass

• Activity Number: 52
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Sunday, July 29, 2012 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Marian Scott*+ and Campbell Gemmell
• Companies: University of Glasgow and Scottish Environment Protection Agency
• Keywords: spatio-temporal ; water ; extremes

Abstract

Considering environmental policy and regulation, there are many challenges concerning the evidence base or put more simply, evaluation of the effectiveness of policy requires reporting on the state of the environment. Statistics and statistical modelling play an important role in delivering the evidence base by addressing three basic but fundamental questions about our environment: what is happening?, why is it happening? and are the changes significant?

Environmental statistics typically have a spatio-temporal context. Especially striking are the environmental (and spatial) challenges in dealing with the water environment, such as monitoring and modelling water quality or in evaluating flood risks. Extremes are also of major societal concern and statistical interest in both modelling and prediction but also attribution of changes in extreme weather patterns as a result of anthropogenic influences is high.

Statistical challenges abound, requiring new methodology, fusion of qualitative and quantitative data, open-ness and transparency, and a language to reflect the societal and regulatory aspects of Environmetrics.