A Logistic Model on Making the NHL Postseason; Effort Defines Elite Teams

• Activity Number: 258
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
• Author(s): Mark Atwood*+
• Companies: University of Massachusetts at Lowell
• Keywords: Logistic ; NHL ; Hockey ; Playoffs ; Sports

Abstract

Although many factors contribute to an NHL team reaching postseason play, none are more so than points earned and goals allowed during the regular season. Using team-level data obtained from Hockey-Reference.com for the 2000-2001 season through 2009-2010 season and a logistic model to predict playoff appearances based on a number of factors, points were most significant (p< 0.001) and goals against, second (p=0.0165). All other factors entered into the model proved insignificant. Results from the model indicate that a team has the potential to increase the probability (OR [95% CI]) of making the postseason by as much as 70.9% (1.709 [1.411, 2.069]) by earning a single extra point. In contrast, although impractical, being able to allow 2 fewer goals increases the probability of making the playoffs by a maximum of 6.4% (0.968 [0.941, 0.995]). Players/coaches alike should note the importance of not being content with getting to overtime during the regular season, but rather strive to take that extra point. When playing a game that is clearly going to be a loss, it behooves the team to continue to try, rather than allow it to become a laugher.