JSM 2011 Online Program

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Abstract Details

Activity Number: 190
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 1, 2011 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
Abstract - #303256
Title: Analysis of the Deaths for Neotlasy in the Rio Grande Do Sul, Brazil
Author(s): Angela Isabel dos Santos Dullius*+ and Tiane Camargo and Mariane Camargo Priesnitz
Companies: Universidade Federal de Santa Maria and Fundação Lusiada and Universidade Luterana do Brasil
Address: , , 97110-000, Brazil
Keywords: Model ; Box-Jenkins ; Neotlasies

The malignant neotlasies constitute an increasing problem of public health in the world. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology was applied to analyze historical data of the total deaths' number for neotlasy in the Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil, the period from January 1998 to December 2010. The Box-Jenkins approach is presented three steps - Identification, Estimation, Checking, are reviewed. Analyzing the autocorrelation coeficients and partial autocorrelation coeficients, one concludes that the best model that represents the data was the SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,0,0)6. The model that it presented residual average quadratic error of 0,0784. This work will go to contribute with excellent information for the public agencies, which need a system of information that supplies such knowledge.

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