JSM 2011 Online Program

The views expressed here are those of the individual authors and not necessarily those of the JSM sponsors, their officers, or their staff.

My Program

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 466
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 3, 2011 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Risk Analysis
Abstract - #303212
Title: Theory of Individual Health Histories and Dependent Competing Risks
Author(s): Igor Akushevich and Konstantin Arbeev*+ and Svetlana Ukraintseva and Anatoliy Yashin
Companies: Duke University and Duke University and Duke University and Duke University
Address: , Durham, NC, 27708, USA
Keywords: cause-specific mortality risks ; longitudinal data ; risk of disease onset ; observational plans ; age trajectories ; stochastic differential equations
Abstract:

Data on individual health histories, age trajectories of physiological variables and cause-specific mortality allow for studying joint evolution of health and physiological states and their effects on mortality risk. Generally cause-specific mortality risks are mutually dependent. Here we present a competing risk model with a weaker assumption of conditional independence of cause-specific time to death, given a stochastic process with two mutually dependent continuous and jumping components. The jumping component describes fast changes in health status and the continuous one describes slower individual physiological aging. Formulation of the exact model based on the Kolmogorov equations for conditional density, the Gaussian approximation, and the parameter estimation in different observational plans in longitudinal measurements are discussed and properties of the model estimation are investigated in simulation study. Application to the Framingham Heart Study resulted in evaluation of a system of indices representing aging related changes and indicators of health. The results suggest the importance of avoiding the marginal independence assumption when appropriate data are available.


The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2011 program




2011 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.